Rasmussen (5/14, likely voters, 4/1 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 42 (38)
Susan Collins (R-inc): 52 (54)
(MoE: ±4%)
Finally, some good movement here for Allen. While Collins’ sky-high favorables will be a tough obstacle here, there’s still plenty of time for this race to heat up.
The same round of polling shows Barack Obama crushing McCain by a nice 51-38 margin here, which certainly doesn’t hurt Allen’s chances.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
Update: It’s very heartening to see that Tom Allen is stepping up his attacks on Collins over her pitiful performance as chair of the Homeland Security Committee from 2003-2007.
I KNEW this race would get closer as it developed! HAHA! Thank you Rasmussen!
This is very good news . . . let’s hope he can keep it up. I definitely think Obama needs to do some big rallies in Maine with Tom Allen. If there’s any candidate who will be helped the most by Obama’s coattails, it’s Allen.
Now, the only question is . . . how fast can you say “BushMcCainCollins” in one breath?
If we can get Collins down under 50% I’ll feel that much more comfortable. I just wish that we had the ability, and we are doing a better job than I expected, but to put the super conservative seats into play. I hate losing moderate Republicans… okay, wait… focus for a second! lol I know half the readerships heads just exploded! lol Hear me out… One of the things that I heard after the midterms elections in 2006 that I hadn’t thought of was Democrats picked off a lot of moderate Republicans… Thereby leaving the main Republian strongholds in the South. All this did was make the Republican party MORE conservative. lol And that is just the last thing that we need. lol But in the end, I allowed myself to say goodbye to Senator Chafee in order to say hello to Senate Majority Leader Reid. lol I just hate to think of the Republican party actually getting MORE conservative than it already is!!!
But technically it is within the MOE. On the very edges mind you, but still within the MOE.
About time Allen is making a move. I know Allen has be attacking Collins lately for her role is the allocation of missing funds while she was on the Senate Homeland Security committee. Collins seems to be very defensive about it and not handling the attacks well. That could be part of the reason for the swing towards allen.
I never realized how bad of a speaker Collins was until listening to her on the internet recently. She’s very shaky and seems to lose her trend of thought quite often.
1. This has always looked a little like Heather Wilson’s defense of NM1 in ’06. She was a moderate GOP Congresswoman facing our best possible recruit (AG Madrid) in a very good D year, but she won because she was prepared, spent money, the party supported her. We won a bunch of seats nobody expected while not winning this one. Allen can win but it’s going to be hardfought in broad daylight. Chafee also faced an almost fatal primary battle.
2. I appreciate Venslor’s concerns, but we need to win every Dem leaning state in the Senate in order to have a sustainable and powerful majority. When Casey, Carper, Whitehouse, Schumer and Sanders won those seats, it put those into the safe Dem category for many years to come. if we rely on beating “bad republicans from red states” to make a majority, we’ll have a very hard time holding it in a bad year. Folks like Tester in MT and Webb in VA will certainly be seriously challenged in ’12. And when Baucus or Dorgan or Conrad or Johnson (SD) leave, those will be hard to defend (even with Herseth and Pomeroy in the wings).
So Don’t worry, be happy…when you’re kicking the GOP’s ass.
venslor you say that you don’t want any party overreaching in it’s policy, but do you want any party to make policy at all? wihout strong majorities there are two effects that neither is good:
1) if neither party ever sustains a strong majority, it means all the power will be in the executive branch. you want checks and balances but in fact you are against one of the most important checks there is.
2) i’m a progressive and i get involved in politics to make progressive policy a reality. without a strong majority, we don’t get any policy at all or only the blandest crap like school uniforms or something. when the deficit reduction bill was passed it was with every democrat voting yes and every republican voting no and it was one of the better bills in the last twenty years.
i appreciate your contrarianism but it seems like you’re really excitied about the prospect of complete paralysis in washington forever. i’m not.
Last year a lot of people were touting this race as a top tier pick-up opportunity and I have just never agreed. There is no doubt we are going to win Maine big in the presidential general, but I have always felt comparisons between Susan Collins and Lincoln Chafee are terribly inapt. Rhode Island is arguably the first or second most Democratic-leaning state in the Union, while Maine is a little more independent-minded. Furthermore, I do not think a lot of people appreciate how loved the Twins are up there. People love Collins and Snowe, and both have done an expert job at remaining within the GOP caucus and not doing or saying anything too crazy to draw the ire of the voters.
I think this poll is tremendous and perhaps telling of a slight shift in momentum, but for now I remain very skeptical that we will win in this state. I concur that Allen is a great candidate — only Angus King would have been better — but Collins is a stout opponent.